LJ: Can you imagine how long this entry would have been if I were high?

This is the entry where the folks who are a freak for numbers will go, "Dude, you are a freak".

So, staring at the aforementioned spreadsheet for a little while, I discovered something quite uplifting. Turns out that a new record close hasn't been set on the Dow since January 14, 2000, when it closed at 11722.98 - almost three years ago. The last time the Dow went so long without setting a record was during the Carter administration. Check this out: The last time a record was set on the Dow before Carter's Doldrum's was September 21, 1976, 775 days or 86.6% into Ford's administration. The low point of the cycle hit on February 28, 1978, 27.7% into Carter's administration, when the Dow closed 26.9% below its all-time high, at 742.12. It eventually rebounded 36.8% off its low, re-achieving its lofty heights on March 25, 1981, 2.2% into Reagan's presidency.

Now, what are the chances that history might be repeating itself? Look at this: the last new record on the Dow was set on January 14, 2000, 87.3% through Clinton's presidency. That's versus 86.6% for Ford! The low point of the current cycle, then, came on July 23, 2002, when the market closed at 7702.34, 34.3% off its high (versus 26.9% for the Carter low - not quite as close, but still statistically significant). The low came 37.7% into Bush II's presidency (versus 27.7% for Carter... again, not as close as would be ideal, but still arguably significant).

If this were more than a coincidence, i could extrapolate the following: the date that the market gets back to the levels it had in January 2000, the level it gets to, that Bush II will not get re-elected, that the 44th president's term will end early, the date the 44th president's term will end, and where the market will be on that day. Here's how.

1) Using a basic ratio calculation, it could be inferred that the high point of the rebound will be roughly 47% above its low, which would put the Dow around 11320.

2) Now since the three parts of the cycle in the 70's and 80's occurred over three presidencies, it can be inferred that this cycle would happen similarly, if we accept the premise that Bush II will be a single-term president. The lengths of the six most recent presidencies (including Bush II as a one-termer) are 895, 1461, 2922, 1461, 2922, 1461. The next number in that sequence is 895, which means that the president after one-termer Bush II will be ended early in some fashion. (It is interesting to note that 895 days after a 44th president takes office is July 3, 2007, suspiciously close to a certain holiday.)

3) Using a little averaging, it could be inferred that the third event in the cycle (the high point of the rebound) would happen 67.5 days after the start of his/her term. Since we can't have a .5 day for these purposes, and since 67 days after January 20, 2005 is a Sunday when the market probably won't be open, we'll take 68. So the Dow would hit somewhere around 11320 on Monday, March 28, 2005.

4) Lastly, going under the wild assumption that this all works out perfectly in the end, utilizing another ratio, it's possible to anticipate a Dow level around 14780 when the 44th president leaves (or is taken out of) office on July 3, 2007.

5) Carrying the palindrome idea to irrational extremes, America will cease to exist sometime in 2205 or 2206. The troubling part about that is that it puts George Bush Prime at the center of the American universe.

OK, so back to the original point, which got me off on that whole tangent. It struck me today that George Bush is the Republican party's way of getting back at the Democrats for Jimmy Carter. Wouldn't that have been nice if I'd said that right up front?

I never said loving me was easy.